Update 2024-05-03

_toc.yml

@@ -857,7 +857,11 @@ subtrees:
         title: Marx
       - file: vwl6/VL_Sozialismus/2024-04-25-Schockindustrie.md
         title: Schockindustrie
+      - file: vwl6/VL_Sozialismus/2024-05-02-Soviet-Ende.md
+        title: Soviet Ende
       - file: vwl6/VL_Sozialismus/2024-05-23-Long-Run.md
         title: Long Run
       - file: vwl6/VL_Sozialismus/2024-06-13-ASV-Empirie.md
         title: ASV Empirie
+      - file: vwl6/VL_Sozialismus/_Slides.md
+        title: 

vwl6/VL_Econometrics/2024-04-16-Multiple-Regression.md

@@ -14,4 +14,59 @@ $$
 wage = \beta_0 + \beta_1 educ+\beta_2 experience + \epsilon
 $$
 
-
+**Interpretation** $\beta_1$ = change in *y* w.r.t $x_1$, holding all other factors fixed
+
+**Assumption** here: $E(u | x_1,x_2) = 0$ : 
+
+- u same for all combinations of $x_1, x_2$
+
+
+
+## OLS Expected Value
+
+Assumptions:
+
+1. parameters ($\beta_i$​) are linear (*variables can be nonlinear*)
+2. random sample of population
+3. no perfect collinearity 
+    - variables are not constant
+    - no perfect linearity of variables
+    - nonlinear functions of same variable are allowed, e.g $y = \beta_0+\beta_1 x + \beta_2 x^2+u$
+4. zero conditional mean: $E(u | x_1,x_2,...) = 0$
+
+=> estimate = truth: $E(\hat{ \beta }) = \beta$
+
+
+
+### Misspecification
+
+Irrelevant Variables
+
+- no effect on unbiasedness
+- effect on variance of OLS-estimator
+
+
+
+Omitted Variable Bias
+
+- true model: $y = \beta_0+\beta_1 x_1 + \beta_2 x_2$
+- our model: $\hat{ y } = \hat{ \beta_1 } + \hat{ \beta_2 } \hat{ \delta }$ (delta = slope between $x_1$ and $x_2$)
+- => $Bias(\beta_1) = E(\beta_1)-\beta_1$
+
+
+
+## OLS Variance
+
+5th assumption: **Homoskedasticity**
+
+- error *u* = same variance for all given values
+- $Var(u | x_1,...) = \sigma^2$
+
+Variance formula
+
+$$
+Var (\hat{ \beta_1 }) = \frac{ \sigma^2 }{SST_j(1-R_j^2)}
+$$
+
+- SST = total sample variation
+- R = R-sqaured

vwl6/VL_Sozialismus/2024-05-02-Soviet-Ende.md

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+# 02.05.2024 Ende der Sowjetunion
+
+## Ch. 10 After Stalin
+
+2. WW: loss of pop and GDP
+
+after 2WW - 1980
+
+- exceptional growth capital stocl
+- big increase employment
+- some expansion cultivated acreage
+
+after 1980 = slowdown
+
+classical explanation = extensive growht / intensive growth
+
+- institutions not made for efficient combination of output
+- system was good for shifting of underused labor surplus
+- after full employment = useless
+
+### Weitzman Analysis
+
+- Soviet Model = Cobb Douglas with elasticity of substitution = 0.4 (not one as normal)
+- missing technological growth = no longer problem
+- but shrinking labor supply
+- rapid growth => abrupt slowdown
+
+![img](../images/2024-05-02_16-41-51.jpg)
+
+- Soviet Union Isoquant Figure:
+    - in 1928: 1% more capital = 0.97 more output (=capital constrained)
+    - in 1960 = labor and capital both efficient
+    - in 1980: 1% more labor = 0.8% more output (=labor constrained)
+- with better elasticity of substitution = grwoth would go on (similar to Japan)
+
+### Allen analysis
+
+- not EOS problem, but investment
+
+**Reconstruction Investment**
+
+- e.g refitting old factories
+- high input needed
+- less output growth
+- wasteful
+
+Politcal Reasons for reconstruction investment
+
+- employment protection
+- provision of housing was trough employer
+- believe to be more economic
+
+
+
+**Resource Depletion**
+
+- 1970s: western russian resources depleted
+- shift to siberia = wasteful + espensive
+- resource course
+- example: energy (coal)
+    - coal in west (donezk) depelted
+    - shift to siberia = more expensive
+- solution would have been trade
+- but focus in self-suffiency in SU
+- no conservation of energy
+    - soft budget constraint = not rising prices
+    - lacking monitoring
+    - no agreement
+- no politicaln will for long run investment
+
+poor incentives => not efficient resource use
+
+
+
+**Technology**
+
+**classical analysis:** conservative towards new technology
+
+- no in house research, but in institutes
+- benefits of technology = only to consumers, not enterprises
+- output target = no incetinve to innovate
+
+**Allen analyisis**
+
+- significant research on site (ex. cement industry)
+- external factor = arms race
+- reallocation to military sector (esp. R&D)
+- military-industrial secotr = take all bright heads
+- plans did not make sense generally
+
+
+
+=> market driven technological change needed
+
+- not one person has to solve problems (like Gorbachev)
+- but the market in general

vwl6/VL_Sozialismus/2024-06-13-ASV-Empirie.md

@@ -1,40 +1,137 @@
 # 13.06.2024 Empirie ASV
 
-Leonard Kucik
+## Über die Texte
+
+Leonard Kukic
 
 - Assistant Prof: Universitad Madrid
 - Topics: Economic History, Eastern Europe
 
+2018: 
+
+2020:
+
+## Wirtschaftsgeshichte Jugoslawiens
+
+- 45-51: Schockindustrialisierung
+    - wie Sowjetunion
+    - zentralisiert
+- 48-65: eigenes Modell der Zentralplaung
+  - Entscheidungsfreiheit in Unternehmen
+  - Arbeiterselbstverwaltung
+  - softere Targets, keine Kollektivierung
+  - zentralen Investment-Fond (staatliches Kapital)
+- 65-74: Marktsozialismus
+  - GATT-Beitritt (WTO Pred.)
+  - Einbindung internationaler Handel
+  - Arbeiterräte in Firmen
+  - Banken als Finanziers
+  - Bewegungsfreiheit / Migrationsphase
+- 74-91: Untergang
+  - Überregulierung
+  - Backlash gegen Liberalisierung
+  - Tito stirbt
+  - ethnische / politische streitigkeiten über Zukunft
+
+## Definitionen
+
+**Solow Modell** 
+
+- exogenes long-run growth model
+- Cobb Douglas Produktionsfunktion
+- grundlage von Growth Accounting (erwähnt in Paper)
+- Versuch zu erklären, warum einige Länder arm, andere reich sind
+    - basierend auf Kapitalstock / Labor Force / Investments etc
+
+
+
+
+**TFP** = Total Factor Productivity
+
+- Effizienz der Verwendung der beiden Produktionsfaktoren in Output
+- "Measure of our Ignorance" = was wir nicht messen können
+- Institutionen, Culture, Geography, Technology
+- insbesondere wichtig, wenn Wirtschaft weiter entwickelt ist
+
+
+
 
 
+## Paper 1: BCA
 
+Wachstumsfaktoren Analyse mit Business Cycle Accounting
 
-## Socialist growth revisited: insights from Yugoslavia
+- neoklassisches wachstumsmodell
+- wedges = abweichung vom "perfekten Pfad"
+- vergleich mit anderen staaten (Griechenland, USA, ...)
 
+Ergebisse:
 
+- TFP = insgesmat wichtig für Wachstum
+- ab 1980: sinkendes TFP Growth
+- besonders relecant aber: labor wedge sinkt
 
+> **Labor wedge:** structure of incentives determining provision of labor  
+>
+> => interpreted as distortion arising due to increased taxation
 
+sozialistische firma = distorted version of perfectly competitve economy
 
-- European Review of Economic History
-- DOI: [10.1093/ereh/hey001](http://doi.org/10.1093/ereh/hey001)
 
 
 
-## Origins of regional divergence: economic growth in socialist Yugoslavia
 
+![img](../images/2024-05-02_11-54-22.jpg)
 
+Grund für Labor Wedge: 1965 Reform
 
-- The Economic History Review
-- DOI: [10.1111/ehr.12967](http://doi.org/10.1111/ehr.12967)
+- maximize income per worker
+- wage rate above market rate
+- less investment
+- restrict labor entry (like strong unions?)
 
 
 
-Kritik / Gedanken
+## Paper 2: Divergence
+
+> **(Solow)-Convergence** (Conditional)
+>
+> - Tendenz dass sich arme Länder höhere Wachstumsrate haben
+> - sich reichen damit annähern (Catch Up Growth)
+> - typisches Beispiel: Südstaaten Nordstaaten USA
+
+
+
+reichere Regionen
+
+- höheres Ausgangsniveau = Vergangenheit in Austro-ungarn
+- und dann auch noch mehr Wachstum
+
+![img](../images/2024-05-02_12-31-14.jpg)
+
+## Rolle des Ölschocks
+
+externer Schock
+
+- balance of payments krise = devisenmangel
+- energieineffizienz der Wirtschaft = teuer
+
+=> jugoslawischen Wirtschaft den Todesstoß gegeben
+
+## Kritik / Gedanken
 
 - Finanzielle Unterstützung von *Mercatus Center* (neoliberaler Think Tank)
-- gibt dem ganzen ein Geschmäckle
+    - gibt dem ganzen ein Geschmäckle
+    - abneigung gegen gewerkschaften / income per worker maximizing
+
 - wie hat der Öl schock andere Länder gebrochen (die kapitalistisch waren)
     - bspw. **XX?**
+- wenn 1965 reformen wichtig für downfall waren, warum dann erst ab 71 sichtbar?
+- sozialismus = abweichung von perfket competitive economy?
+
+
+
+